At PM-CMs meet: Covid surge top probably mid-May, venture till July, infra gaps in key states

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Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Delhi are expected to see the biggest jump in falls later this month. UP tops the list with 1,19,604 cases predicted by the end of the month, nearly five times the 20,439 registered as of April 15.

The current rise in Covid is expected to peak in mid-May. The daily number reaches 5 lakh and decreases between June and July. densely populated states are “particularly at risk”; and the health infrastructure in the states is insufficient to meet the “very serious scenario”.

These are the key points made during a presentation by NITI Aayog member Dr. VK Paul, who heads a key central body, were highlighted during the Prime Minister’s review meeting with senior ministers on Friday, The Sunday Express learned.

The presentation also highlights the various measures the government has taken to “break the chains of transmission”: “revised, liberal” vaccination policies; Improving the “production and availability” of oxygen; “Increased Availability” of Remdesivir; and various outreach initiatives.

“Team India will fight this second corona attack and win the war,” he concludes. However, a significant part of the presentation describes the scope of the crisis, including the projected number of cases for April 30th and the growing shortage of critical equipment. According to sources, Paul pointed out obvious gaps in the health infrastructure of 10 states with high case burden: Maharashtra, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan,Gujarat.

and these are expected to be May Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Delhi are seeing the biggest jump in cases by the end of this month. UP tops the list with 1,19,604 cases predicted by the end of the month. That’s almost five times the 20,439 cases recorded on April 15th. In Delhi, the daily number rose to 67,134 by the end of this month, almost four times from 17,282 April 15.

“No state has sufficient infrastructure to cope with the increase in the number of cases. It can increase due to a lack of treatment facilities,” said the presentation.

It warns that the “wave of Covid continues to rise” and that the “peak is far away, possibly mid-May”.

He estimates that “cases may reach 5 lakh a day or even more for the next few days” and “deaths will increase”. It will be some time before the wave subsides – be prepared via way of means of June / July,” says the the presentation that became shared with the states.

He points out that the capacities of the health system with “lack of oxygen” and “some drugs” “exceed” – and that at the end of December there were 81,094 beds in the intensive care unit in the country, which could only cover the need for up to 1.5 lakh cases per day “The situation will get worse if we delay the change in strategy,” he warns. He notes that India is “the world leader in new cases and daily deaths” and that the country is the only nation with the highest number of cases (3.15 lakh) in a single day.

The Center’s Empowered Officers Group on the Medical Emergency Management Plan did not respond to calls or messages. f The Sunday Express asked for your comments on the content of the presentation, but a civil servant attending the Prime Minister’s meeting confirmed the content.

The official from one of the 10 surge states accepted that there were infrastructure gaps but said the “biggest problem” was lack of oxygen. “Today the problem is not the health infrastructure, but oxygen. We can increase the number of beds if we get oxygen,”

the presentation also describes the vaccination program and the efforts of the government to increase the supply of liquid medical oxygen and Remdesivir. The availability of oxygen has increased by 3,300 tons per day, he says.”India has 1,172 oxygen tankers (16,732 tons of capacity) … efforts to climb above 2,000,”he says.

“Guidelines have been drawn up for oxygen demand … More dissemination and implementation of guidelines is needed at the hospital level,” he says.

Regarding Remdesivir, he explains: “As demand increased, production began to increase in March from 27.44 lakh per month to 74.10 lakh per month in May. The manufacturers produce deliveries through sales channels that also serve hospitals and private institutions as direct to major state purchases … From March 1st to March 22nd, around 49.07 lakh streets were delivered nationwide. “

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